21-22

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Jan 31, 2022

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>A few inches of low density snow this morning will not increase the danger, but it will create some small hazards to watch out for. Strong westerly wind will drift any new snow into fresh slabs. These slabs will be shallow, maybe 4” deep, but could be easy for a person to trigger and propagate wide due to weak snow that recently formed near the top of the snowpack (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/weak-layers-lionhead"><strong>pho…;, <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gR0EiO4JEeM&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvT1nrM2… video</a></strong>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pv0tDJMuK4&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvT1nrM2… video</strong></a>). Fresh drifts will unlikely be large enough to bury a person. If today’s strong wind doesn’t blow the low-density snow back to the sky, it could form thick dangerous slabs in favored, isolated areas. Before riding steep slopes watch for signs of instability like cracking of the snow surface or natural avalanches. Avoid fresh drifts in terrain where any size slide could be deadly due to pushing you into trees or over cliffs.</p>

<p>Avalanches deeper than today’s snow are unlikely, but shouldn’t be ruled out on slopes favored by recent wind-loading. Ian saw this yesterday near Cooke City where he found one slope with a weak layer buried deeper than anywhere else he had found it (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEC_zOu4JJg">video</a></strong&gt;), and a natural avalanche near Big Sky last Friday shows types of terrain where isolated instabilities might linger (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/25668">photo and details</a></strong>).</p>

<p>The forecast for snow has backed off for the mountains near West Yellowstone and the Bridger Range, and less than an inch is expected. It will take a couple inches of new snow for strong wind to form even small fresh drifts. If you choose to ski or ride in avalanche terrain it is always important to carefully assess the snowpack on each slope, only expose one person at a time, and carry proper avalanche rescue gear.</p>

<p>Today the snowpack is generally stable with small and isolated instabilities, and the avalanche danger is LOW. If more snow falls than is expected, danger will rise on wind-loaded slopes.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Education Opportunities

See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Flints

Date
Activity
Skiing
Snowmobiling

Toured in the Flints this weekend on all aspects between 8-9k ft. Solar aspect had begun to develop a melt freeze crust. Consistent SW winds effectively transported the foot of low density snow which had fallen over the last week. Prevailing winds swirled off ridge tops and had begun to effect leeward slopes scouring and drifting below treeline. Above treeline, alpine slopes were primarily scoured with significant drifting noted in some leeward alpine basins. No significant signs of instability observed aside from isolated cracking of wind slabs on ridges.

Region
Butte Area
Location (from list)
Flint Creek Range
Observer Name
MAS

Flints

Date
Activity
Skiing
Snowmobiling

Toured in the Flints this weekend on all aspects between 8-9k ft. Solar aspect had begun to develop a melt freeze crust. Consistent SW winds effectively transported the foot of low density snow which had fallen over the last week. Prevailing winds swirled off ridge tops and had begun to effect leeward slopes scouring and drifting below treeline. Above treeline, alpine slopes were primarily scoured with significant drifting noted in some leeward alpine basins. No significant signs of instability observed aside from isolated cracking of wind slabs on ridges.

Region
Out of Advisory Area
Observer Name
MAS

Hyalite Traverse

Date
Activity
Skiing

We noted no signs of instability between Hylaite peak and Mt Bole (we conducted quick hand pits and shovel shears along the route). There was a large cornice collapse on an east facing ridge to the west of Divide Peak (photo) and, with sunny weather in the afternoon, we watched out for large overhanging cornices that were getting backed in the sun (photo). On the northeast face of Elephant Mountain, at ~9850ft, we recorded a  sudden planar Q1 shear with easy effort @15cm in a shovel shear test (photo). Although this site was in a small, isolated pocket of wind loading, we will be watching this layer closely going forward. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Hyalite - main fork
Observer Name
Erich Schreier

Texas Meadows, Bridger Range E Aspect

Date
Activity
Skiing

A completely sugary faceted snowpack on an east facing slope above the Texas Meadows Knob to the west on an East facing aspect. Extremely week all the way through consistently at this elevation. Scary for future loading.

Region
Bridger Range
Location (from list)
Texas Meadow
Observer Name
Addison Holtzhafer

Quake Lake

Date
Activity
Skiing

We skied south of Quake Lake today, and found stable conditions. I observed one collapsed cornice from several days ago that had tumbled down a ~35 degree, east-facing slope at 9400' without triggering anything below it. A pit at ~8400' was 115 cm deep and showed a pretty thoroughly rotten, weak snowpack. We found no reactivity in an ECT, but I could get a shear about 15 cm down on a 1-2 cm layer of lower-density facets. We felt comfortable traveling and skiing in avalanche terrain, but the snow is so faceted near the surface that it can be difficult to sidehill on anything steep--the top of the snowpack feels more like sand than snow, and skis like it, too. I encountered similar conditions skiing above Hebgen Lake yesterday, and anticipate this snowpack to be reactive if it ever snows again.

Region
Lionhead Range
Observer Name
Sam Reinsel

Fat Maid, Maid of the Mist Basin

Date
Activity
Skiing

We found an overall very variable snowpack in the alpine, with deeper wind affected snow on leeward features, usually sporting a thin to moderate wind board and very shallow, hard wind affected snow on windward features, usually rocky. Below and near tree line, snow was soft and cold on northerly aspects and a bit squishy and warm on more southerly slopes. In the couloir it’s self, we found a shallow snowpack averaging 30-70 cm in depth. Lower in the couloir we found a 6-8cm faceting crust over large facets. It was not reactive to non-SWAG hand pits and shear tests dug throughout the up route. Higher (approx 1/2 the way) in the couloir, the snow transitioned to rounded, hard to very hard (1F to P, some places P+ or K) wind affected snow uniform throughout the depth. This only changed on the more southerly parts, often near rock, where the snow was faceted and softer (4F to F), being unconsolidated and loose in a few places. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Maid of the Mist
Observer Name
Wyatt Gober