Trip Planning for Island Park

as of 5:00 am
May 1 |
Apr 30 3″ |
Apr 29 0″ | NA
9885′     04/24 at 11:00
24.0℉
NE - 11mph
Gusts 20 mph
8750′     02/05 at 19:07
61.5″ Depth
1.1″New
7710′     05/05 at 01:00
42℉
31″ Depth
Primary Problem: Loose Wet
Bottom Line: Today and this weekend, the main threat is wet snow avalanches. A minimal refreeze of the snow this week combined with very warm weather the next few days will increase the odds of wet loose avalanches. 

Past 5 Days

Sun Apr 20

Low
Mon Apr 21

None
Fri Apr 25

None
Mon Apr 28

None
Fri May 2

None

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Videos- Island Park

Snowpit Profiles- Island Park

 

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Weather Forecast Island Park

Extended Forecast for

10 Miles ESE Lakeview MT

Winter Weather Advisory May 5, 06:00am until May 6, 06:00amClick here for hazard details and duration Winter Weather Advisory
  • Overnight

    Overnight: A 40 percent chance of rain.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

    Low: 35 °F

    Chance Rain

  • Monday

    Monday: A chance of rain and snow before 2pm, then snow likely.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

    High: 39 °F

    Breezy.
    Chance
    Rain/Snow
    then
    Rain/Snow
    Likely

  • Monday Night

    Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 1am.  Cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

    Low: 27 °F

    Snow Likely
    and Blustery

  • Tuesday

    Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow before noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. North northeast wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

    High: 49 °F

    Slight Chance
    Snow then
    Mostly Sunny

  • Tuesday Night

    Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. North northeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

    Low: 32 °F

    Partly Cloudy

  • Wednesday

    Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 55. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

    High: 55 °F

    Sunny

  • Wednesday Night

    Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. South southwest wind 7 to 13 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

    Low: 38 °F

    Mostly Clear

  • Thursday

    Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. East southeast wind 7 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

    High: 59 °F

    Sunny then
    Chance
    Showers

  • Thursday Night

    Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers before midnight.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

    Low: 39 °F

    Slight Chance
    Showers then
    Mostly Clear

The Last Word

Thank you for another successful season. Our success is directly related to support from our community and the Forest Service. Thanks to the readers of the forecast, everyone that sent in observations, took an avalanche class, or donated money, time or gear. We will issue conditions updates on Mondays and Fridays through April.

GENERAL SPRING SNOWPACK AND TRAVEL ADVICE

Spring weather can be highly variable and create a mix of avalanche problems. Snow conditions and stability can change drastically from day to day or hour to hour. Anticipate rapid change and plan accordingly. Abundant snowfall over the winter with more spring snow to come makes avalanches possible into summer.

NEW SNOW AND WIND LOADED SLOPES

Spring storms are notorious for depositing heavy amounts of snow in the mountains. Even with a deep and generally stable snowpack throughout the advisory area, heavy and rapid loads of new snow will decrease stability. The main problems to look out for are avalanches breaking within the new snow, wind slabs, and loose snow avalanches. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche spikes during and immediately after snowstorms. New snow instabilities tend to stabilize quickly, but it’s a good idea to give fresh snow a day to adjust before hitting big terrain. New snow instabilities can be challenging to assess, and spring storms bond to old snow differently across aspects and elevations. Conservative terrain selection is essential during and immediately following storms. Avoid wind-loaded slopes and slopes steeper than 35 degrees for 24-48 hours after new snow and wind.

New snow can quickly change from dry to wet on a spring day, and stability can decrease rapidly with above freezing temperatures or brief sunshine. New snow may bond well early in the morning and then easily slide later. Wet loose slides are likely during the first above freezing temperatures or sunshine immediately after a storm. Anticipate changes in snow stability as you change aspect or elevation and over the course of the day. An early start is always an advantage. Be ready to change plans or move to safer terrain at the first signs of decreasing stability.

WET SNOW AVALANCHES

Spring and wet snow avalanches go hand-in-hand. Above freezing temperatures, rain, and/or intense sunshine cause the snow to become wet and weak and make wet avalanches easy to trigger or release naturally. Conditions tend to become most unstable when temperatures stay above freezing for multiple days and nights in a row. Avoid steep terrain, and be aware of the potential for natural wet avalanches in steep terrain above you, if you see:

  • Heavy rain,
  • Above freezing temperatures for more than 24 hours,
  • Natural wet avalanches,
  • Rollerballs or pinwheels indicating a moist or wet snow surface,
  • Or if you sink to your boot top in wet snow.

In general, if the snow surface freezes solid overnight, the snowpack will be stable in the morning and stability will decrease through the day as snow warms up. The snow surface hardness, rate of warming, duration of sunshine, aspect and elevation determine how fast stability will decrease through the day. Be aware that sunny aspects may have a wet snow avalanche danger while shadier slopes still have a dry snow avalanche danger. Getting off of steep slopes should be considered when, or before, the above signs of instability are present. Wet snow avalanches, whether loose snow or slabs, can be powerful, destructive and very dangerous. Conservative terrain choices, starting early in the day, and careful observations can keep you safe.

CORNICES

Cornices along ridgelines are massive and can break under the weight of a person (photo). Prolonged above freezing temperatures and rain make them weaker and possible to break naturally. They can break off suddenly and farther back than one might expect. Cornice falls can also entrain large amounts of loose snow or trigger slab avalanches. Stay far back from the edge of ridgelines and minimize exposure to slopes directly below cornices. Regardless of whether a cornice triggers a slide or not, a falling cornice is dangerous to anyone in its path.

DISCLAIMER

It does not matter if new snow falls or not, avalanches will continue to occur until the existing snowpack is mostly gone. Always assess the slope you plan to ride with diligence and safety in mind. Do not let your guard down. Travel with a partner, carry rescue gear and only expose one person at a time in avalanche terrain.

Have a safe and enjoyable spring and summer!

Mark, Alex, Ian and Dave

For more spring travel advice see this article from our GNFAC forecaster blog.

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