23-24

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>New snow is falling onto an exceptionally weak snowpack (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv3pmhbGE54"><span><span><span><strong>… Fork video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXw5Dvhntgc"><span><span><span><strong>… Rind video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJP7UA8qVqc"><span><span><span><strong>… Basin video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Even with just a couple inches of new snow, human triggered avalanches are possible. With widespread (now buried) surface hoar and weak facets throughout the snowpack avalanches will break wider and further above you than is typical for a new snow instability.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today is a day of transition as we go from a dry spell into a snowy period. With this transition comes a degree of uncertainty, but there are some things we can be confident in - as soon as a slab develops, we will see avalanches. The question to focus on during your travels today is whether the new snow is thick and cohesive enough to act as a slab. Slopes that do not have a cohesive slab of new snow are unlikely to avalanche.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today’s moderate wind speeds are perfect for drifting the new snow into deeper slabs. Look for drifts beneath ridgelines, in gullies, and behind tree islands. Keep your eyes peeled for signs of wind drifting and pay careful attention to the feel of the snow beneath your feet or machine. Be very wary of any slope that has more than 6” of new or wind drifted snow.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>There is not enough new snow to cause widespread instability, rather, you’ll need to be on the lookout for pockets of instability. Renewed vigilance is required. Carefully consider the unique snowpack characteristics of each steep slope before traveling across them.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Watch for signs of instability such as cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches and be ready to back off steep slopes if you see these signs.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is MODERATE across the advisory area.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The mountains have 1.5-2.5 feet of snow which has weakened substantially. Grains of snow have metamorphosed into sugary facets which stick together as well as a handful of sand. The snowpack is unsupportable. Ian rode into Taylor Fork yesterday and trenched through the snowpack and sank to the ground as he stepped off his machine (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/Zv3pmhbGE54"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>…, Looking Forward</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). He described the layers in his snowpit to me as, “weak on weak on weak”. Yet weak is not unstable. A slab of cohesive snow is missing from the avalanche recipe and the odds of triggering a slide is minimal.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Areas of concern are slopes or gullies that have wind drifts or a slab of snow overlaying these facets. A whumpf near a steep slope is Mother Nature prompting you to reevaluate your plans. And no matter the avalanche danger, only expose one person at a time in avalanche terrain and carry rescue gear, because sometimes we get surprised and safe travel techniques can save our life.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The snowpack structure is similar throughout our forecast area. Our recent field investigations, which involve navigating downed trees, overheating sleds and avoiding buried obstacles, point to a weak but stable backcountry snowpack. Our videos at Bacon Rind (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/DXw5Dvhntgc"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… Zinn Lied</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>), Beehive Basin (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/gJP7UA8qVqc"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… Missing Ingredient</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>), and Cooke City (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/YvrdF4FpETs"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… unlikely, but not totally impossible</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>) illustrate similarities between the mountain ranges.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>For today, throughout our forecast area, the avalanche danger is rated LOW.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>