21-22

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Jan 8, 2022

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Triggering large and dangerous avalanches is <strong><em>likely</em></strong> today on all steep slopes. Two ft of new snow fell in the last 48 hours (2.6” of <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/null/?cid=nrcseprd1314… Water Equivalent</u></a>). Close to 3 ft fell in the last 5 days (3.3” of SWE). Strong winds are building deep drifts. Wind-loaded slopes have been pushed past their breaking point and are avalanching naturally (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/25431"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…; on 6 natural avalanches on Wall Mountain). A rider yesterday triggered a 2 ft deep slide that broke 100 ft wide while digging out his stuck sled, thankfully he is okay (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/25432"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;). Conditions are very dangerous on all slopes - we just barely missed the criteria for issuing an avalanche warning. Today is a day to avoid avalanche terrain including the runout zones beneath slide paths. You could trigger a slide from below or it could break naturally above you. The avalanche danger is HIGH on wind-loaded slopes and CONSIDERABLE on all others.</p>

<p>Very strong winds continue to build huge, unstable drifts. Expect to find drifts in unusual places and to trigger avalanches in those drifts or on deeper weak layers. Stay off of and out from under all steep, windloaded slopes to avoid triggering a slide. Slopes without drifted snow are less worrisome, but with extreme wind speeds these slopes are few and far between and hard to confidently identify.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Weak layers near the ground have also been loaded by the new snow and could avalanche today. Riders in Taylor Fork on Thursday got audible collapses on these layers on small slopes. On larger or steeper slopes it would have avalanched. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on all others.</p>

<p>Winds have been intense but there is less recent snow near Bozeman and Big Sky. Still - be skeptical of wind drifts. There were numerous small avalanches in the Bridger Range on Thursday, many slopes have stabilized since then but some have not (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/small-new-snow-slide-west-bridger…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/new-snow-slide-throne-2"><strong>…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/new-snow-slide-throne-1"><strong>…;). Before riding a steep slope, make sure that any wind drifted snow is either very thin or well bonded and that there are not unstable weak layers lower in the pack. The avalanche danger is MODERATE because human triggered avalanches are possible.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Education Opportunities

The West Yellowstone Beacon Park is up and running! Stop by to check it out and practice with your rescue gear. 

See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Snowmobile triggered slide outside Cooke City

COOKE CITY
Cooke City
Code
SS-AMu-R2-D2
Latitude
45.02020
Longitude
-109.93800
Notes

 

From facebook: "This morning 1/7/2022 by lower lady I set off a avalanche about 2ft deep 100ft wide just a heads up out there the new snow is not very safe!! Glad my whole group stayed low, I was up there alone digging it out when it broke loose! Stay safe ride on!"

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
2
D size
2
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Natural avalanches on Wall Mountain

Wall Mountain
Cooke City
Code
HS-N
Latitude
44.99770
Longitude
-109.97800
Notes

At least 6 natural avalanches reported on Wall Mountain (between Silver Gate and Cooke City).

Number of slides
6
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Taylor Fork

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

From text message:

“ Went to Taylor Fk buddy. Road was horrible so just didn’t want to keep driving. Snow was epic! The new snow was definitely breaking. That said, we saw no naturals. We did avoid slopes of avalanche angle of any size. But small hills that had the right angle were fracturing and propagating even remotely

Photo 1: Old debris seen around the basin

Photo 2: Zoom in to the photo and you can see the fractures there above the sled track, it collapsed audibly. Tiny little slope

Region
Southern Madison
Location (from list)
Taylor Fork
Observer Name
Jed Weingarten via Dave Zinn