GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Mar 17, 2024
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Over the last couple days large avalanches were triggered, breaking deep on persistent weak layers. Yesterday in Taylor Fork a rider triggered a 2-4 foot deep slide on a short slope, he was able to grab a tree and escape the slide while it carried his snowmobile (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31479"><span><span><span><strong><span… and details</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). On Friday, outside but near our forecast area, a skier triggered a big avalanche from far away as they ascended a ridgeline (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31460"><span><span><span><strong><span… and photos</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). This weekend we have seen less frequent avalanches than the previous couple weeks and months (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log"><span><span><span… log</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>), but the high consequences of these slides and difficulty assessing their potential on any given slope creates dangerous avalanche conditions (some notable recent activity: </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31432"><span><span><span><strong><span… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/ZaqRmvvNp9c"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31343"><span><span><span><strong><span… photos</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/snow-observations-list?field_regions_simila… City activity list</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Above freezing temperatures during the day will increase the likelihood for wet snow avalanches. Smaller loose wet avalanches are likely and could trigger larger slides breaking deeper and wider. As the snow surface melts the addition of water and changes to the slab may make it easier to trigger larger avalanches. Plan to avoid steep slopes, and be extra cautious traveling below sunny slopes as they warm up through the day. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In the Bridger Range, and near West Yellowstone and Island Park, the likelihood is lower for triggering a large slide, but it is possible. A deeper snowpack in the southwest part of our forecast area is making it more difficult to trigger deep slides, and in the Bridger Range there has been less snow overall. Yesterday I was in the Bridger Range and saw weak snow near the ground in a four foot deep snowpit (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31475"><span><span><span><strong><span…;), similar to what another group of skiers found (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/31472"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). We also saw natural wet loose avalanches on sunny, steep rocky slopes (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/loose-wet-snow-avalanche-frazier"…;). </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>It is reasonable to travel in some avalanche terrain, but it requires careful snowpack and terrain evaluation. Choose slopes that have clean runouts, with minimal consequences like trees or cliffs, in case you get surprised. Anticipate snow stability to decrease on sunny slopes as the snow heats up and gets wet through the day (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/ds25Ad2Z0Bo?feature=shared"><span><span><span><strong>…;). Plan to be off of and out from underneath steep sunny slopes before the snow surface gets wet more than a few inches deep. Natural rollerballs or wet loose slides are your last warning sign to be off sunny slopes. Also, be on the lookout for small wind slabs formed by recent winds drifting the snow that fell earlier in the week. Human-triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is rated MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
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Loose wet in Frazier
We saw a few natural wet loose avalanches run throughout the middle of the day in sunny, steep rocky terrain.
Pn 3/16/24 We saw a few natural wet loose avalanches run throughout the middle of the day in sunny, steep rocky terrain. Photo: GNFAC
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Mar 17, 2024GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Mar 23, 2024
On 3/16/24 we saw a few natural wet loose avalanches run throughout the middle of the day in sunny, steep rocky terrain. There were at least 4 old, deeper avalanche crowns, most of which had been reported and occurred 1-2 weeks ago. Photo: GNFAC
On 3/16/24 We saw at least 4 old, deeper avalanche crowns, most of which had been reported and occurred 1-2 weeks ago. Photo: GNFAC
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 18, 2024
Rider triggered Avalanche in Taylor Fork
From obs 3/16/24: "Avalanche broke about 400ft wide and slid for 250 ft. 4-2ft deep at the crown. Photo shows How my sled ended up after being dragged 200ft. I was able jump off and grab a tree."
A rider triggered this avalanche in Taylor Fork on 3/16/24. "Avalanche broke about 400ft wide and slid for 250 ft. 4-2ft deep at the crown."
Wet snow instabilities
We skied into Frazier Basin from the Fairy Lake road. On north facing slopes the snow was dry. On south facing slopes there was a 1-2" melt freeze crust which was softening on southeast-south facing slopes around 11am-noon. Snow was generally dry below that crust, probably got a little more wet today than yesterday.
We saw a few natural wet loose avalanches run throughout the middle of the day in sunny, steep rocky terrain. There were at least 4 old, deeper avalanche crowns, most of which had been reported and occurred 1-2 weeks ago.
We dug a snowpit on a north facing slope at 8,300'. Snow depth was 140cm and there was weak depth hoar (4F hardness) 30-40cm above the ground, below a 2-3 foot deep hard slab. Compression tests broke on the depth hoar/facets at CT29 and CT(30+1), sudden collapse/Q1.
Skies were partly cloudy in the morning and cleared with scattered clouds through the day. Wind was calm.